Geomagnetic field activity is likely to reach G1 (Minor) geomagnetic
storm levels on January 13 and 14, and then from January 17 to 20.

Unsettled levels are likely on January 12, and then from January 21
and 22.  All enhancements in geomagnetic activity are due to the
anticipated influence of multiple, recurrent, coronal holes. The
remainder of the outlook period is expected to be mostly quiet.

A tracking model from NOAA/SWPC shows a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME)
could pass close to Earth by January 11.  Multiple faint coronal
mass ejections were observed off the SE limb originating from Region
4334. However, modeling appeared to show no Earth-directed
component.
 
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance (45 percent) for
M-class flares (R1-R2, minor-moderate), and a slight chance (10
percent) for isolated X-class flares (R3-strong) until January 10.
 
Solar wind parameters became mildly enhanced after January 7.
However, Coronal Hole High Speed Stream (CH HSS) influence is
expected to persist through January 10.

Unsettled to active conditions are expected to continue on January
10 and 11 as the coronal hole moves further into a geo-effective
position, along with the possible arrival of CMEs that left the Sun
on January 8, with a chance for isolated G1 (Minor) storm conditions
late on January 10.
 
Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere, January 8, 2026, by F. K. Janda, OK1HH:

"According to the original forecast, solar activity was expected to
gradually decline until mid-January. However, an active region,
AR4336, emerged in the southeast of the solar disk, in a location
where nothing unusual had occurred during the previous solar
rotation. As a result, overall solar activity is already beginning
to increase.

"Other formations important for the forecast are coronal holes No.
12 and 13, whose proximity to active regions will cause an
intensification of the solar wind. Its effects will be felt in the
Earth's magnetosphere and ionosphere since January 9, when the
shorter disturbance is expected. This will be followed by a brief
lull and a renewed increase in geomagnetic activity before
mid-January.

"The forecast for the coming days is very uncertain. If the
situation from the last solar rotation repeats itself, solar
activity could continue to increase since mid-January, while the
days of January 15-18 could be geomagnetically active or even
disturbed. However, it seems that a reliable forecast cannot be made
at this time."

The Predicted Planetary A Index for January 10 to 16 is 8, 5, 10,
15, 15, 5, and 5, with a mean of 9.  Predicted Planetary K Index is
3, 2, 3, 5, 5, 2, and 2, with a mean of 3.1.  10.7-centimeter flux
is 135, 130, 135, 135, 140, 145, and 145, with a mean of 137.9.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see
http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see
http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere . Information and
tutorials on propagation can be found at, http://k9la.us/ .

Also, check this:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt

"Understanding Solar Indices" from September 2002 QST.